GB●●●○○
UK Financial Services Deregulation
Post-Brexit reform passes second reading with relaxed Solvency II and expanded fintech sandbox.
Policy
Policy
Bills, regulation and elections — through the market lens.
Approaching votes — next 30 days
DE●●●●○
German €45B Industrial Energy Subsidy
Bundestag coalition finalizes €45B plan to cut industrial electricity costs by up to 30%.
ES●●○○○
Spain Digital Services Tax → 5%
Digital services tax expanded from 3% to 5%, broadened to include cloud and enterprise software.
US●●●●●
U.S. AI Infrastructure Bill ($120B)
Senate Commerce advances $120B AI bill including federal compute centers and semiconductor R&D funding.
US●●●●●
U.S. AI Infrastructure Bill ($120B)
Senate Commerce advances $120B AI bill including federal compute centers and semiconductor R&D funding.
US●●●●○
U.S. Rx Drug Import Authorization
Senate advances wholesale drug importation from Canada and select EU countries.
Sector Pressure
Healthcare0↑ 2↓ · sev 3.5
Comm. Svcs1↑ 2↓ · sev 3.7
Technology4↑ 2↓ · sev 4.0
Cons. Staples0↑ 1↓ · sev 4.0
Materials2↑ 1↓ · sev 3.8
Financials2↑ 1↓ · sev 3.2
Energy3↑ 1↓ · sev 3.6
Industrials7↑ 1↓ · sev 4.1
Utilities1↑ 0↓ · sev 4.0
Real Estate1↑ 0↓ · sev 3.0
Bills pipeline
Draft 2
US●●●●○
U.S. Bank Capital Requirements (+15% CET1)
Fed and OCC propose 15% additional CET1 capital for systemically important banks.
CH●●●○○
Switzerland Banking Secrecy Reform
Federal Council proposes expanded automatic exchange of information for trusts and foundations.
Review 3
US●●●●●
U.S. AI Infrastructure Bill ($120B)
Senate Commerce advances $120B AI bill including federal compute centers and semiconductor R&D funding.
US●●●●●
U.S. AI Infrastructure Bill ($120B)
Senate Commerce advances $120B AI bill including federal compute centers and semiconductor R&D funding.
DE●●●●○
German €45B Industrial Energy Subsidy
Bundestag coalition finalizes €45B plan to cut industrial electricity costs by up to 30%.
Decision 3
US●●●●○
U.S. Rx Drug Import Authorization
Senate advances wholesale drug importation from Canada and select EU countries.
GB●●●○○
UK Financial Services Deregulation
Post-Brexit reform passes second reading with relaxed Solvency II and expanded fintech sandbox.
ES●●○○○
Spain Digital Services Tax → 5%
Digital services tax expanded from 3% to 5%, broadened to include cloud and enterprise software.
Outcome 10
CN●●●●●
China ¥500B Tech Self-Sufficiency Fund
State Council expands national semiconductor and AI self-sufficiency fund significantly.
CN●●●●●
China Rare Earth Export License Overhaul
MOFCOM adds 12 processed mineral categories to restricted list. Western EV and defense face uncertainty.
PL●●●●○
Poland Nuclear Energy Act (6GW / €35B)
Sejm passes landmark nuclear energy act authorizing two plants with combined 6GW capacity.
EU●●●●○
EU DMA Enforcement — €1.8B Fines
European Commission fines two major tech platforms for Digital Markets Act non-compliance.
EU●●●●○
EU CBAM Phase 2 Expansion
European Commission expands Carbon Border Adjustment to polymers and organic chemicals. Full tariffs by 2028.
SE●●●○○
Sweden Green Steel Tax Credit (40%)
Riksdag approves comprehensive tax credit covering 40% of hydrogen-DRI steel transition costs.
US●●●○○
U.S. Housing Supply Executive Order
Federal agencies directed to streamline construction permits and expand housing tax credits.
IT●●●○○
Italy €8B Semiconductor Fab Incentives
Council of Ministers approves incentive package for chip fabrication in southern Italy.
Country risk
🇺🇸USModerate
United States
Divided Congress
3↑ 2↓ · 3.0
🇪🇺EUModerate
European Union
EPP/S&D
0↑ 2↓ · 3.0
🇨🇳CNLow
China
CPC
0↑ 0↓ · 2.0
🇨🇭CHLow
Switzerland
Federal Council
0↑ 0↓ · 1.0
🇫🇷FRLow
France
Fragmented
0↑ 1↓ · 0.9
🇳🇴NOLow
Norway
Labour/Centre
0↑ 0↓ · 0.7
🇪🇸ESLow
Spain
PSOE Minority
0↑ 1↓ · 0.6
🇬🇧GBLow
United Kingdom
Labour
1↑ 0↓ · 0.0
🇩🇪DELow
Germany
CDU/SPD
1↑ 0↓ · 0.0
🇮🇹ITLow
Italy
FdI Coalition
1↑ 0↓ · 0.0
🇸🇪SELow
Sweden
Right Bloc
1↑ 0↓ · 0.0
🇵🇱PLLow
Poland
PO Coalition
1↑ 0↓ · 0.0
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