Calgro M3 Holdings Ltd

Calgro M3 Holdings Ltd maintains a capital structure characterized by significant leverage, with long-term debt of 1.40 billion ZAR against total equity of 1.57 billion ZAR, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.89. The company reports a strong current ratio of 8.7, indicating ample short-term liquidity to cover immediate obligations. However, operating cash flow is negative at -99.1 million ZAR, while free cash flow remains positive at 157.7 million ZAR, driven by minimal capital expenditures of -0.83 million ZAR. The risk assessment flags medium liquidity risk and notes that net cash is negative after subtracting total debt, highlighting reliance on debt financing.

Profitability metrics show a return on equity of 10.22% and a return on assets of 4.34%. The company generated a gross profit of 242.9 million ZAR on revenue of 893.2 million ZAR, yielding an operating income of 171.0 million ZAR and net income of 160.2 million ZAR. Without cohort median data for direct comparison, these returns reflect the company's ability to convert revenue into net earnings, though the negative operating cash flow suggests potential working capital pressures or timing differences in cash collections.

Segment and geographic revenue breakdowns are not provided in the available data, preventing analysis of revenue concentration or regional exposure. The absence of this information limits the ability to assess diversification risks or specific market drivers within the real estate sector.

Growth trajectory analysis is constrained by the lack of historical period data. Current revenue stands at 893.2 million ZAR, while analyst estimates project mean revenue of 962.6 million ZAR, indicating expected growth. The mean EPS estimate of 1.76 ZAR exceeds the last actual EPS of 1.65 ZAR, suggesting anticipated improvement in per-share profitability.

Risk factors include medium liquidity risk and low dilution risk. The key flag of negative net cash after debt subtraction underscores the importance of maintaining access to credit markets. Dilution risk is assessed as low, with basic and diluted shares outstanding both at 95.4 million, indicating no significant options or convertible securities impacting share count.

Recent observations include analyst price targets uniformly set at 9.50 ZAR, with mean, median, high, and low estimates all converging at this value. The mean revenue estimate of 962.6 million ZAR is higher than the last actual revenue of 893.2 million ZAR, reflecting positive market expectations. No specific filing, news, or transcript observations are provided to detail recent corporate events or management commentary.

Free cash flow remained positive at 157.7 million ZAR in FY2026, providing liquidity despite revenue declines.

Dilution risk is assessed as low, suggesting limited immediate threat to existing shareholder equity value.

Long-term debt increased to 1.4 billion ZAR in FY2026, rising significantly from 959.5 million ZAR in FY2024.

Credit risk is flagged as high, indicating potential vulnerabilities in the company's financial stability or loan book.

Cash conversion ratio of -0.62 places the company in the bottom quartile, reflecting poor cash generation efficiency.

Revenue ZAR 893.2M, +2,8% YoY; Operating income +3,2% YoY.

• ▍Revenue ZAR 893.2M, +2,8% YoY
• ▍Operating income +3,2% YoY
• ▍Net income −2,9% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −1,2% YoY
• ▍Net margin 17.9%

Revenue ZAR 868.9M, −32,7% YoY; Operating income −36,0% YoY.

• ▍Revenue ZAR 868.9M, −32,7% YoY
• ▍Operating income −36,0% YoY
• ▍Net income −15,7% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −20,3% YoY
• ▍Net margin 19.0%

Revenue ZAR 1.29B, −15,4% YoY; Operating income +0,6% YoY.

• ▍Revenue ZAR 1.29B, −15,4% YoY
• ▍Operating income +0,6% YoY
• ▍Net income +5,1% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +4,7% YoY
• ▍Net margin 15.2%