Canada Goose Holdings Inc

Canada Goose maintains a capital structure characterized by significant leverage, with long-term debt of CAD 785.2 million against total equity of CAD 608.4 million, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.29. Despite this leverage, the company exhibits strong short-term liquidity, evidenced by a current ratio of 2.63, which suggests sufficient current assets to cover immediate liabilities. The firm generated operating cash flow of CAD 191.9 million and free cash flow of CAD 116.7 million, indicating robust cash generation capabilities relative to its capital expenditures of CAD 42.6 million. However, the net cash position is negative after accounting for total debt, highlighting a reliance on debt financing for its operations and growth initiatives.

Profitability metrics reveal a company under pressure, with a net income of CAD 22.5 million on revenue of CAD 1,528.2 million, yielding a net margin of approximately 1.47%. The return on equity stands at 3.7%, while return on assets is 1.28%, both of which are modest and suggest limited efficiency in generating profits from its asset base. The price-to-earnings ratio of 25.92 implies that investors are pricing in future growth or recovery potential, despite current low profitability. The enterprise value-to-EBITDA multiple of 15.41 and EV-to-revenue of 0.9 indicate a valuation that is not excessively high relative to sales, but the low returns on capital employed warrant scrutiny regarding the sustainability of current margins.

Revenue concentration and geographic exposure are not detailed in the available segment data, limiting the ability to assess specific regional risks or product mix dependencies. The company’s total revenue of CAD 1,528.2 million serves as the primary top-line metric, with gross profit of CAD 1,065.5 million indicating a gross margin of approximately 69.7%, which is typical for luxury apparel brands but must be weighed against high operating expenses that compress operating income to CAD 88.8 million. Without segment breakdowns, the analysis relies on aggregate figures, assuming a diversified but potentially concentrated customer base typical of the luxury outerwear sector.

Growth trajectory analysis is constrained by the absence of historical period data in the input. The current financial snapshot provides a single-period view, preventing a year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter trend analysis. The lack of historical revenue and net income data means that the company’s growth momentum, seasonality, and cyclical patterns cannot be quantitatively assessed from the provided information. Investors must rely on forward-looking statements and analyst estimates to gauge future performance, as past trends are not available for comparison.

Risk factors include medium liquidity risk, likely stemming from the high debt load and potential volatility in cash flows, and low dilution risk, as the basic and diluted shares outstanding are identical at 46.5 million, indicating no immediate options or warrants exercisable at current prices. The key flag of negative net cash after debt subtraction underscores the financial leverage risk. Additionally, the company’s reliance on debt financing exposes it to interest rate fluctuations and refinancing risks, which could impact future profitability and cash flow stability.

Recent events include analyst coverage updates, with a mean price target of CAD 15.00 and a median of CAD 16.00, suggesting modest upside potential from the current market price of CAD 12.54. The mean recommendation of 2.78 indicates a neutral to slightly positive sentiment among analysts, with one strong buy, two buys, and four holds. No significant news events or filing observations were reported beyond the reconciler enqueue actions, which are administrative in nature and do not reflect operational changes. The absence of recent material news suggests a period of stability or lack of catalysts for immediate price movement.

Revenue grew 13.3% year-over-year to CAD 1.53 billion in fiscal 2026, demonstrating continued top-line expansion.

Analysts project 19.6% upside to a mean price target of CAD 15.00 from the current market price.

Gross profit increased to CAD 1.07 billion in fiscal 2026, indicating maintained pricing power and margin resilience.

Free cash flow remained positive at CAD 116.7 million in fiscal 2026, supporting ongoing operational liquidity needs.

Dilution risk is assessed as low, suggesting limited immediate pressure on existing shareholder equity value.

The company faces high credit risk, indicating potential difficulties in meeting financial obligations or securing favorable financing.

Return on equity fell to 3.7%, indicating inefficient use of shareholder capital to generate profits.

Revenue C$453.3M, +17,9% YoY; Operating income +17,8% YoY.

• ▍Revenue C$453.3M, +17,9% YoY
• ▍Operating income +17,8% YoY
• ▍Net income +3,7% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −9,8% YoY
• ▍Net margin 6.2%

Revenue C$694.5M, +14,2% YoY; Operating income −2,0% YoY.

• ▍Revenue C$694.5M, +14,2% YoY
• ▍Operating income −2,0% YoY
• ▍Net income −3,5% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −6,7% YoY
• ▍Net margin 19.4%

Revenue C$272.6M, +1,8% YoY; Operating income −1 200,0% YoY.

• ▍Revenue C$272.6M, +1,8% YoY
• ▍Operating income −1 200,0% YoY
• ▍Net income −381,5% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −169,1% YoY
• ▍Net margin -5.6%

Revenue C$107.8M, +22,4% YoY; Operating income −63,8% YoY.

• ▍Revenue C$107.8M, +22,4% YoY
• ▍Operating income −63,8% YoY
• ▍Net income −61,8% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −119,8% YoY
• ▍Net margin -116.1%

Revenue C$384.6M; Operating income C$55.1M.

• ▍Revenue C$384.6M
• ▍Operating income C$55.1M
• ▍Net margin 7.0%

Revenue C$607.9M; Operating income C$204.3M.

• ▍Revenue C$607.9M
• ▍Operating income C$204.3M
• ▍Net margin 23.0%

Revenue C$267.8M; Operating income C$1.6M.

• ▍Revenue C$267.8M
• ▍Operating income C$1.6M
• ▍Net margin 2.0%

Revenue C$88.1M; Operating income -C$96.9M.

• ▍Revenue C$88.1M
• ▍Operating income -C$96.9M
• ▍Net margin -87.9%

Revenue C$1.53B, +13,3% YoY; Operating income −45,9% YoY.

• ▍Revenue C$1.53B, +13,3% YoY
• ▍Operating income −45,9% YoY
• ▍Net income −76,3% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −46,1% YoY
• ▍Net margin 1.5%

Revenue C$1.35B, +1,1% YoY; Operating income +31,8% YoY.

• ▍Revenue C$1.35B, +1,1% YoY
• ▍Operating income +31,8% YoY
• ▍Net income +62,3% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +68,8% YoY
• ▍Net margin 7.0%

Revenue C$1.33B, +9,6% YoY; Operating income −8,1% YoY.

• ▍Revenue C$1.33B, +9,6% YoY
• ▍Operating income −8,1% YoY
• ▍Net income −19,7% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −1,8% YoY
• ▍Net margin 4.4%

Revenue C$1.22B, +10,8% YoY; Operating income −8,0% YoY.

• ▍Revenue C$1.22B, +10,8% YoY
• ▍Operating income −8,0% YoY
• ▍Net income −23,1% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −15,4% YoY
• ▍Net margin 6.0%