Aemetis Inc

Aemetis Inc has a negative equity position of $248.95 million and a total debt of $432.26 million, indicating a highly leveraged capital structure. The company's liquidity is constrained, with only $234,000 in cash and equivalents and a current ratio of 0.2, suggesting significant short-term liquidity risk. The enterprise value to revenue ratio of 8.93 is higher than the industry median, reflecting a premium valuation despite the company's negative operating cash flow of $15.37 million.

The company's profitability is weak, with a net loss of $29.17 million and an operating loss of $13.61 million in the latest period. Return on equity is positive at 11.72%, but this is misleading due to the negative equity base. Return on assets is negative at -12.57%, indicating poor asset utilization and underperformance relative to the Renewable Fuels industry's preferred metrics.

Aemetis Inc's revenue is concentrated in a single business segment focused on renewable fuels, with no disclosed geographic diversification in the financial snapshot. This lack of diversification increases exposure to regional regulatory and market risks, particularly in the U.S. where the company is based.

The company's growth trajectory is uncertain, with no specific revenue growth rates provided in the financial data. However, the capital expenditure of $8.98 million suggests ongoing investment in production capacity, which could support future revenue expansion if operational efficiency improves. The outlook for the current fiscal year is not explicitly provided, but the negative operating and net income indicate a challenging near-term environment.

The risk assessment highlights medium liquidity risk and low dilution risk, with the key flag being negative net cash after subtracting total debt. The company has not issued additional shares recently, and the dilution potential is low, as indicated by the unchanged basic and diluted shares outstanding.

Recent events include analyst price targets ranging from $1.75 to $28.00, with a mean of $11.25 and a median of $3.00, reflecting a wide range of expectations among analysts. The mean recommendation of 2.40 suggests a cautious outlook, with three "buy" and two "hold" ratings, but no "strong buy" recommendations.

Analysts project 618.8% upside to a mean price target of $11.25, signaling strong institutional confidence in future valuation recovery.

Return on equity of 11.72% exceeds the renewable fuels cohort median of 2.26%, indicating superior capital efficiency relative to peers.

Net income improved by 12.0% year-over-year in FY2026, suggesting a potential stabilization or reduction in operational losses.

Operating income improved by 7.5% year-over-year in FY2026, reflecting modest progress in managing core operational expenses against revenue.

Free cash flow improved by 6.0% year-over-year in FY2026, indicating a slight reduction in cash burn from operations and investments.

The company carries high credit risk and a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -1.74, signaling severe balance sheet distress and insolvency concerns.

Long-term debt surged to $511.8 million in FY2026, representing a significant increase from $238.8 million in FY2022 and raising solvency risks.

A current ratio of 0.0724 indicates severe liquidity constraints, suggesting the company may struggle to meet short-term obligations.

Revenue $54.6M; Operating income -$6.3M.

• ▍Revenue $54.6M
• ▍Operating income -$6.3M
• ▍Net margin -39.8%

Revenue $53.7M, +14,2% YoY; Operating income +81,4% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $53.7M, +14,2% YoY
• ▍Operating income +81,4% YoY
• ▍Net income +67,1% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +6,8% YoY
• ▍Net margin -9.9%

Revenue $59.2M, −27,3% YoY; Operating income −119,7% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $59.2M, −27,3% YoY
• ▍Operating income −119,7% YoY
• ▍Net income −32,4% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −27,2% YoY
• ▍Net margin -40.1%

Revenue $52.2M, −21,5% YoY; Operating income +21,6% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $52.2M, −21,5% YoY
• ▍Operating income +21,6% YoY
• ▍Net income +19,8% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +24,5% YoY
• ▍Net margin -44.8%

Revenue $47.0M; Operating income -$13.3M.

• ▍Revenue $47.0M
• ▍Operating income -$13.3M
• ▍Net margin -34.5%

Revenue $81.4M; Operating income -$3.9M.

• ▍Revenue $81.4M
• ▍Operating income -$3.9M
• ▍Net margin -22.0%

Revenue $66.6M; Operating income -$13.6M.

• ▍Revenue $66.6M
• ▍Operating income -$13.6M
• ▍Net margin -43.8%

Revenue $208.0M, −22,3% YoY; Operating income +7,5% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $208.0M, −22,3% YoY
• ▍Operating income +7,5% YoY
• ▍Net income +12,0% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +6,0% YoY
• ▍Net margin -37.0%

Revenue $267.6M, +43,3% YoY; Operating income −7,6% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $267.6M, +43,3% YoY
• ▍Operating income −7,6% YoY
• ▍Net income −88,6% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −36,9% YoY
• ▍Net margin -32.7%

Revenue $186.7M, −27,2% YoY; Operating income +54,6% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $186.7M, −27,2% YoY
• ▍Operating income +54,6% YoY
• ▍Net income +56,9% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +48,7% YoY
• ▍Net margin -24.9%

Revenue $256.5M, +21,0% YoY; Operating income −460,8% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $256.5M, +21,0% YoY
• ▍Operating income −460,8% YoY
• ▍Net income −128,6% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −107,5% YoY
• ▍Net margin -42.0%

Revenue $211.9M; Operating income -$14.7M.

• ▍Revenue $211.9M
• ▍Operating income -$14.7M
• ▍Net margin -22.2%