Fair Isaac Corp

Fair Isaac Corp maintains a capital structure characterized by significant leverage, with long-term debt of $2.66 billion against cash and equivalents of $134.1 million. The balance sheet reflects negative total equity of -$1.75 billion, resulting in a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -1.52 and a negative return on equity of -43.51%. Despite the negative equity position, the company generates strong operating cash flow of $778.8 million, which exceeds its net income of $651.9 million, indicating high-quality earnings. The current ratio is not explicitly provided, but the liquidity risk is assessed as medium, likely due to the high debt load relative to liquid assets.

Profitability metrics show a robust operating margin, with operating income of $924.9 million on revenue of $1.99 billion, yielding an operating margin of approximately 46.5%. The return on assets is 40.66%, demonstrating efficient use of its asset base to generate profits. The valuation multiples reflect a premium position, with a P/E ratio of 40.02 and an EV/EBITDA of 28.98, suggesting investors expect sustained growth and high margins. The EV/Revenue multiple of 14.6 further underscores the market's valuation of the company's recurring revenue model.

Revenue concentration and segment details are not explicitly broken down in the provided data, but the company's activity is defined as Application Software, serving a broad base of financial institutions. The geographic exposure is not detailed in the input, but the global nature of credit scoring implies diversified international revenue streams. The lack of specific segment data prevents a detailed analysis of revenue concentration risks, but the dominant position in credit scoring suggests a high degree of market concentration in its core product line.

Growth trajectory analysis is limited by the absence of historical period data in the input. However, the current revenue of $1.99 billion and strong operating cash flow suggest a mature, cash-generative business model. The capital expenditure is minimal at $8.9 million, indicating a low-capital-intensity business model typical of software companies. This low capex requirement supports the high free cash flow generation, which is critical for servicing the significant debt load.

Risk factors include medium liquidity risk and medium dilution risk, with key flags noting negative net cash and potential dilution from offerings. The negative equity position poses a structural risk, although the strong cash flow generation mitigates immediate solvency concerns. The dilution risk is flagged due to potential share issuances or convertible debt instruments, which could impact earnings per share in the future.

Recent events include analyst estimates with a mean price target of $1,547.06 and a median target of $1,549.50, indicating a positive outlook from the sell-side. The mean recommendation is 2.17, with 4 strong buys and 12 buys, suggesting broad analyst confidence in the company's prospects. The high price target of $2,400.00 and low of $707.00 reflect a wide range of expectations, but the consensus leans towards upside potential from the current market price of $1,279.41.

Fair Isaac Corp (FICO.O) experienced a major holder change involving investor ID 931, whose shareholding in the company was significantly modified. The data indicates a shift in the number of shares held by this investor, with records showing a change from 1.0 share to 5,225.0 shares, and vice versa, as of the reporting date of March 31, 2026. These modifications were detected on June 21 and June 23, 2026, respectively, marking a notable adjustment in the ownership structure associated with this specific investor. The significance of this change lies in the alteration of the investor's weight in the company, which fluctuated between a negligible 5.13e-07% and 0.0025%. While the absolute value of the holdings remained small, ranging from $0.001 million to $5.28 million, the magnitude of the share count adjustment triggered a major severity signal. This suggests a potential correction or strategic adjustment in the investor's position, although the overall impact on the company's total equity structure appears limited given the small percentage weight. Despite this specific holder activity, there were no other material changes reported for Fair Isaac Corp compared to prior analysis. The company's broader profile remains stable, with no updates to its officer count, analyst coverage, or index membership, which stands at one. The absence of additional material changes indicates that the holder modification is an isolated event rather than part of a larger corporate restructuring or financial shift. Fair Isaac Corp continues to be held by 34 top holders, maintaining a consistent ownership base outside of the specific adjustment by investor ID 931. The company's operational and financial metrics, as reflected in the available data, show no significant deviations that would warrant a broader reassessment of its market position. Investors should monitor whether this holder change reflects a broader trend in institutional interest or remains an anomaly within the company's shareholder registry.

Revenue grew 15.9% year-over-year to $1.99 billion in fiscal 2025, demonstrating strong top-line expansion.

Operating margin reached 50.4%, significantly outperforming the 2.99% median for the software cohort.

Free cash flow increased 25.3% to $623.2 million, highlighting robust cash generation capabilities.

Analysts project 25.0% upside to a mean price target of $1,547.06, signaling bullish sentiment.

Long-term debt surged to $3.06 billion in fiscal 2025, reflecting a high leverage band.

The current ratio of 0.83 indicates potential liquidity constraints relative to short-term obligations.

Medium-level risks for liquidity, dilution, and credit suggest underlying financial stability concerns.

Book value is negative $1.75 billion, complicating traditional valuation metrics and equity analysis.

Revenue $691.7M, +38,7% YoY; Operating income +63,8% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $691.7M, +38,7% YoY
• ▍Operating income +63,8% YoY
• ▍Net income +62,6% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +65,6% YoY
• ▍Net margin 38.2%

Revenue $512.0M, +16,4% YoY; Operating income +30,4% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $512.0M, +16,4% YoY
• ▍Operating income +30,4% YoY
• ▍Net income +3,8% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +3,2% YoY
• ▍Net margin 30.9%

Revenue $515.8M, +13,7% YoY; Operating income +20,3% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $515.8M, +13,7% YoY
• ▍Operating income +20,3% YoY
• ▍Net income +14,2% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +10,4% YoY
• ▍Net margin 30.1%

Revenue $536.4M, +19,8% YoY; Operating income +38,0% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $536.4M, +19,8% YoY
• ▍Operating income +38,0% YoY
• ▍Net income +44,0% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +43,6% YoY
• ▍Net margin 33.9%

Revenue $498.7M; Operating income $245.6M.

• ▍Revenue $498.7M
• ▍Operating income $245.6M
• ▍Net margin 32.6%

Revenue $440.0M; Operating income $179.5M.

• ▍Revenue $440.0M
• ▍Operating income $179.5M
• ▍Net margin 34.7%

Revenue $453.8M; Operating income $197.2M.

• ▍Revenue $453.8M
• ▍Operating income $197.2M
• ▍Net margin 29.9%

Revenue $447.8M; Operating income $190.3M.

• ▍Revenue $447.8M
• ▍Operating income $190.3M
• ▍Net margin 28.2%

Revenue $1.99B, +15,9% YoY; Operating income +26,1% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $1.99B, +15,9% YoY
• ▍Operating income +26,1% YoY
• ▍Net income +27,1% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +25,2% YoY
• ▍Net margin 32.7%

Revenue $1.72B, +13,5% YoY; Operating income +14,1% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $1.72B, +13,5% YoY
• ▍Operating income +14,1% YoY
• ▍Net income +19,4% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +15,7% YoY
• ▍Net margin 29.9%

Revenue $1.51B, +9,9% YoY; Operating income +18,5% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $1.51B, +9,9% YoY
• ▍Operating income +18,5% YoY
• ▍Net income +14,9% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +11,8% YoY
• ▍Net margin 28.4%

Revenue $1.38B, +4,6% YoY; Operating income +7,3% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $1.38B, +4,6% YoY
• ▍Operating income +7,3% YoY
• ▍Net income −4,7% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −5,7% YoY
• ▍Net margin 27.1%