AGNC Investment Corp.
AGNC Investment Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust that invests primarily in Agency mortgage-backed securities, generating returns through the spread between asset yields and short-term financing costs.
Business. AGNC Investment Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust that invests primarily in Agency mortgage-backed securities, generating returns through the spread between asset yields and short-term financing costs.
Analyst recommendations
14 analysts · consensus HoldAt a glance
What drives this business
The watch-list the newsroom runs for this company — derived from its sector path, sharpened layer by layer. Not investment advice.
News & coverage
0Sector rotation
Developing storylines
Analysis
AI analysisOpportunity
Upcoming catalysts
Scheduled public events. Informational only — not investment advice.
- Company
- EarningsQ3 2026 earnings (expected)2026-10-28 · estimated
- Macro
- Rate decisionBank of England rate decision (press conf.)2026-08-06 · GB
- Rate decisionReserve Bank of Australia rate decision (press conf.)2026-08-12 · AU
- Rate decisionNorges Bank rate decision (press conf.)2026-08-20 · NO
- Rate decisionSveriges Riksbank rate decision (press conf.)2026-09-03 · SE
- Rate decisionBank of Canada rate decision (press conf.)2026-09-09 · CA
- Rate decisionEuropean Central Bank rate decision (press conf.)2026-09-10 · EU
- Macro & political
- ElectionSE Swedish Election2026-09-14 · SE
- ElectionUS U.S. Midterms2026-11-03 · US
- ElectionFR French Legislative2027-06-01 · FR
Pre-earnings brief
Signals & dispatch
Composite-score breakdown
Synthesis
AGNC Investment Corp. is a mortgage real estate investment trust that invests primarily in Agency mortgage-backed securities, generating returns through the spread between asset yields and short-term financing costs.
AGNC Investment Corp. maintains a highly leveraged capital structure typical of mortgage REITs, with total assets of $118.9 billion supported by $106.7 billion in liabilities and $12.2 billion in equity. The debt-to-equity ratio is reported as 0.0 in the valuation snapshot, which likely reflects a data anomaly or specific accounting treatment for repurchase agreements rather than an absence of leverage, given the massive liability base relative to equity. Liquidity is assessed as low, with cash and equivalents standing at $493 million against a market capitalization of $12.8 billion. The company trades at a price-to-book ratio of 1.1, indicating the market values the equity at a slight premium to its book value.
Profitability metrics are currently negative, with a return on equity of -1.22% and a return on assets of -0.12% for the latest period. Net income was -$148 million, reflecting the pressure on net interest margins or unrealized losses impacting earnings, although the company notes it has not recognized impairment losses on available-for-sale securities through net income for the periods presented. Operating cash flow remains positive at $387 million, providing a buffer against the reported net loss.
The company’s business activity is concentrated in the $9 trillion Agency mortgage-backed securities market, which provides liquidity to the residential real estate mortgage markets in the U.S.. Financing rates are primarily impacted by short-term benchmark rates and liquidity in the Agency repo and short-term funding markets, exposing the company to interest rate risk and refinancing risk. No specific segment or geographic revenue breakdown is provided beyond the general focus on U.S. Agency MBS.
Growth trajectory data is limited in the current snapshot, but the company has been operating since its IPO in May 2008. The recent net income loss of $148 million suggests a challenging period for earnings generation, potentially due to a steep yield curve or widening spreads. The share count shows 1.15 billion basic shares outstanding versus 1.12 billion diluted shares, a discrepancy that may warrant further investigation into the calculation of diluted shares given the net loss environment.
Risk assessment indicates low liquidity and medium dilution risk, with key flags noting source documents mention dilution or offering risk. The company’s reliance on short-term funding markets creates sensitivity to changes in benchmark rates and repo market liquidity. The negative return on equity and assets highlights the current profitability challenges in the mortgage REIT sector.
Recent events include an 8-K filing with material items under code 2.02, indicating a change in registrant’s certifying accountant or a departure of directors/officers, though the specific nature is not detailed beyond the severity classification. Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a mean recommendation of 2.79 (on a 1-5 scale) and a mean price target of $11.44, closely aligned with the current market price of $11.43. There are no strong buy ratings, with 3 buy and 11 hold ratings, suggesting cautious market expectations.
- AGNC trades at a 1.1x price-to-book multiple, with a market cap of $12.8 billion and total assets of $118.9 billion.
- The company reported a net loss of $148 million in Q1 2026, resulting in negative ROE (-1.22%) and ROA (-0.12%).
- Liquidity is assessed as low, with $493 million in cash and equivalents, while dilution risk is rated as medium.
- Financing costs are tied to short-term benchmark rates and Agency repo market liquidity, creating interest rate sensitivity.
- Analyst consensus is neutral, with a mean price target of $11.44 and a mean recommendation of 2.79.
- Recent 8-K filings indicate material corporate events, though specific details are limited to severity classifications.
Bull / Bear case
analysis pipelineIn focus — financials by report
Valuation FY
Revenue by segment
Business relationships
Supply chain
Peer comparison
Market position
Stress test
Predictor forecast
| Metric | Our forecast | Guidance | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | —no estimate | —no estimate | 1,56 |
| Revenue | —no estimate | —no estimate | 1,6B USD |
| Operating income | —no estimate | —no estimate | 1,5B USD |
Options
Short squeeze
Earnings-call key lines
Consensus distribution
sell-side coverageEstimate revisions
consensus EPS · 26-week trendSell-side observations
Themes
ESG
Risk factors
- Source documents mention dilution or offering risk.
Benchmarks vs cohort
Corporate actions / M&A
FX exposure
Comparable transactions
Derivatives & instruments
Actions
Ask Handelsavisen
- Market data
- Regulatory filings
- Issuer disclosures
- Public news
- Earnings transcripts
- Consensus estimates
- ESG data
- Reference data
- Price To Tangible Bookmarket_price / (tangible_book_value / shares_outstanding_diluted)
- Price To Bookmarket_price / (adjusted_book_value / shares_outstanding_diluted)
- Return On Equitynet_income / total_equity
- Enterprise Valuemarket_cap - net_cash
- Net Cashcash_and_equivalents + short_term_investments - short_term_debt - long_term_debt
- Market Priceinput from market-data provider (delayed close or quote-shim mid)
- AGNC Investment Corp. company facts · 2026-07-21
- AGNC Investment Corp. 10-Q 2026-05-04 · 2026-07-21
- AGNC Investment Corp. 10-K 2026-02-23 · 2026-07-21
- AGNC Investment Corp. 10-Q 2025-10-31 · 2026-07-21
- AGNC Investment Corp. 10-Q 2025-08-01 · 2026-07-21
- 8-K (sec_8k_material) on AGNC · 2026-07-21
- AGNC Investment Corp Market data — analyst estimates · 2026-07-21
- AGNC Investment Corp Market data — ESG · 2026-07-21
Ownership & reference
Top holders
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,05 %$75M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,04 %$232M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,02 %$58M
- Investment Managers · as of 2025-12-310,02 %$1 048M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$210M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$77M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$15M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$71M
- Investment Managers · as of 2024-06-300,01 %$354M
- Brokerage Firms · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$25M
- Investment Managers · as of 2024-12-310,01 %$27M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$194M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$36M
- Brokerage Firms · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$27M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$73M
- Funds · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$23M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$21M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$5M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$5M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$3M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$20M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$3M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$2M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
Insider activity
- EVP, CFO · Common StockSold 5 000 @ $11,00$55K · 2026-07-28
- EVP, CFO · Common StockSold 10 000 @ $10,79$108K · 2026-05-12
- Director · Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareSold 22 000 @ $10,78$237K · 2026-05-06
- Director · Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareSold 6 800 @ $10,74$73K · 2026-05-04
- Director, Director, President, CEO, CIO · Common StockSold 64 412 @ $11,08$714K · 2026-04-28
- Director, Director, President, CEO, CIO · Common StockSold 64 411 @ $11,03$710K · 2026-04-27
- Director, Director, President, CEO, CIO · Common StockSold 64 411 @ $10,91$703K · 2026-04-24
- Director · Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareOther 17 045 · 2026-04-16
- Director · Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareOther 17 045 · 2026-04-16
- Director · Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareOther 17 045 · 2026-04-16
- Director · Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareOther 17 045 · 2026-04-16
- Director · Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareOther 17 045 · 2026-04-16
- Director · Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareOther 17 045 · 2026-04-16
- Director · Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareOther 17 045 · 2026-04-16
- Director · Common Stock, par value $0.01 per shareOther 17 045 · 2026-04-16
- Director, Director, President, CEO, CIO · Common StockOther 89 873 @ $10,33$928K · 2026-03-16
- EVP · Common StockOther 35 030 @ $10,33$362K · 2026-03-16
- EVP and General Counsel · Common StockOther 29 093 @ $10,33$301K · 2026-03-16
- EVP, CFO · Common StockOther 48 988 @ $10,33$506K · 2026-03-16
- Director, Director, Executive Chair · Common StockOther 58 512 @ $10,33$604K · 2026-03-16
- EVP, CFO · Common StockOther 89 686 · 2026-03-02
- EVP and General Counsel · Common StockOther 60 538 · 2026-03-02
- Director, Director, Executive Chair · Common StockOther 62 152 · 2026-03-02
- Director, Director, President, CEO, CIO · Common StockOther 184 977 · 2026-03-02
- EVP · Common StockOther 80 717 · 2026-03-02
Short positioning
Geographic breakdown
Intel & risk
no material change vs prior analysis (walked 17 fields; 4 schema-expansion field(s) excluded)
- Narrative— → —medium
- Business summary— → —medium
- Conclusion— → —medium
- Key takeaways— → —medium
Evidence & claims
From filings & derived data- Total liabilities (annual): USD 102.68BUnknown
- Net income (annual): USD 1.67BUnknown
- Shares outstanding (annual): 1.11BUnknown
- Cash & equivalents (annual): USD 450MUnknown
- Shareholders' equity (annual): USD 12.39BUnknown
- EPS (basic) (annual): USD-PER-SHARES 1Unknown
- EPS (diluted) (annual): USD-PER-SHARES 1Unknown
- Operating cash flow (annual): USD 653MUnknown
- Total assets (annual): USD 115.08BUnknown
- Total operating expenses (annual): USD 127MUnknown
- Shareholders' equity (annual): USD 9.76BUnknown
- Total operating expenses (annual): USD 110MUnknown
- Total assets (annual): USD 88.02BUnknown
- Cash & equivalents (annual): USD 505MUnknown
- Operating cash flow (annual): USD 86MUnknown
- Shares outstanding (annual): 897.4MUnknown
- Total liabilities (annual): USD 78.25BUnknown
- Net income (annual): USD 863MUnknown