Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk PT

PGAS.JK maintains a conservative capital structure with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.46, below the industry median of 0.65, indicating a relatively low leverage position. The company's liquidity position is supported by $617.68 million in cash and equivalents, though this is partially offset by $1.22 billion in long-term debt, resulting in a net cash position of -$607.92 million. The current ratio of 1.75 suggests the company can cover its short-term obligations, though the liquidity risk is assessed as medium due to the net cash shortfall.

Profitability metrics show PGAS.JK underperforming relative to industry benchmarks. Return on equity (ROE) of 2.47% is below the industry median of 4.2%, and return on assets (ROA) of 1.07% is also below the median of 1.8%. This underperformance is driven by thin operating margins of 13.95% (operating income to revenue), compared to a median of 18.5% in the natural gas utilities sector. The company's gross margin of 21.97% is similarly below the median of 25.3%, indicating pricing or cost pressures.

Geographically, PGAS.JK is heavily concentrated in Indonesia, where it operates as the primary gas utility. Revenue is derived from regulated distribution services and commercial gas sales, with no material international exposure. The company's business is highly dependent on domestic energy demand and government policy, which introduces regulatory and macroeconomic risks.

Looking ahead, PGAS.JK is projected to grow revenue by 4.2% in the current fiscal year and 3.8% in the next, driven by incremental demand in residential and industrial sectors. However, capital expenditure is expected to remain negative at -$60.15 million, reflecting maintenance rather than expansionary investment. The company's free cash flow of $162.43 million provides some flexibility for dividends or debt reduction, though the net cash position remains a constraint.

Risk factors include regulatory changes, exposure to fuel price volatility, and potential dilution from future capital raises. The risk assessment flags a net cash shortfall as a key liquidity concern, and while dilution risk is currently low, the company has $1.22 billion in long-term debt that could necessitate refinancing or equity issuance in the medium term. No recent dilutive events have been reported, and the dilution potential remains low.

Recent filings and transcripts highlight the company's focus on maintaining service reliability amid rising energy demand. PGAS.JK has also emphasized its role in supporting Indonesia's energy transition goals, though no material capital commitments have been disclosed for renewable initiatives. Analysts remain cautiously optimistic, with a mean price target of $2,161.14 and a median recommendation of 2.14 (leaning toward "buy").

Operating and net margins exceed the natural gas utilities cohort median, indicating superior profitability relative to peers.

Cash conversion of 6.26 is best-in-class, significantly outperforming the cohort median of 1.5.

Analysts project 14% upside to a mean price target of 2,161, reflecting a consensus buy recommendation.

Long-term debt decreased steadily from $2.95 billion in 2022 to $1.10 billion in 2026.

Revenue demonstrates consistent growth, rising from $3.04 billion in 2022 to a projected $3.98 billion in 2026.

The company faces high credit risk, posing significant financial stability concerns for investors.

Return on equity of 2.47% falls below the natural gas utilities cohort median of 4.7%.

Revenue $929.6M, −3,8% YoY; Operating income +11,1% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $929.6M, −3,8% YoY
• ▍Operating income +11,1% YoY
• ▍Net income +45,9% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +41,3% YoY
• ▍Net margin 9.7%

Revenue $1.05B, +8,3% YoY; Operating income −62,2% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $1.05B, +8,3% YoY
• ▍Operating income −62,2% YoY
• ▍Net income −129,6% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −95,6% YoY
• ▍Net margin -2.1%

Revenue $985.1M, +0,8% YoY; Operating income +16,9% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $985.1M, +0,8% YoY
• ▍Operating income +16,9% YoY
• ▍Net income +21,7% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −117,8% YoY
• ▍Net margin 9.5%

Revenue $971.2M, +9,2% YoY; Operating income +7,9% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $971.2M, +9,2% YoY
• ▍Operating income +7,9% YoY
• ▍Net income +25,9% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −0,9% YoY
• ▍Net margin 8.5%

Revenue $966.6M; Operating income $105.9M.

• ▍Revenue $966.6M
• ▍Operating income $105.9M
• ▍Net margin 6.4%

Revenue $972.1M; Operating income $97.9M.

• ▍Revenue $972.1M
• ▍Operating income $97.9M
• ▍Net margin 7.8%

Revenue $977.6M; Operating income $122.5M.

• ▍Revenue $977.6M
• ▍Operating income $122.5M
• ▍Net margin 7.9%

Revenue $889.7M; Operating income $124.2M.

• ▍Revenue $889.7M
• ▍Operating income $124.2M
• ▍Net margin 7.4%

Revenue $3.98B, +4,9% YoY; Operating income −18,2% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $3.98B, +4,9% YoY
• ▍Operating income −18,2% YoY
• ▍Net income −36,5% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −70,3% YoY
• ▍Net margin 5.4%

Revenue $3.79B, +3,9% YoY; Operating income −5,3% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $3.79B, +3,9% YoY
• ▍Operating income −5,3% YoY
• ▍Net income +22,1% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −5,1% YoY
• ▍Net margin 9.0%

Revenue $3.65B, +2,2% YoY; Operating income −12,8% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $3.65B, +2,2% YoY
• ▍Operating income −12,8% YoY
• ▍Net income −14,8% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow −24,7% YoY
• ▍Net margin 7.6%

Revenue $3.57B, +17,5% YoY; Operating income +50,4% YoY.

• ▍Revenue $3.57B, +17,5% YoY
• ▍Operating income +50,4% YoY
• ▍Net income +7,4% YoY
• ▍Free cash flow +6,4% YoY
• ▍Net margin 9.1%