Colombia’s central bank has raised its inflation projection for the end of 2026 to 6.9%, driven by unexpected increases in regulated goods prices and the lingering effects of El Niño.
The Banco de la República outlined these pressures in its July monetary policy report, noting that the unanticipated rise in gasoline prices has significantly contributed to the upward revision.
This marks a notable shift in the inflation outlook, as the central bank grapples with persistent cost-push factors that threaten to keep consumer prices elevated well beyond initial expectations.
The revised forecast underscores the challenges facing policymakers in maintaining price stability amid external shocks.
While global oil markets have seen fluctuations, including a recent cooling of tensions following the US-Iran ceasefire pact, domestic fuel prices in Colombia have remained firm, deflating earlier hopes for a rapid disinflationary trend.
The central bank’s assessment suggests that these structural pressures are more entrenched than previously anticipated, complicating the path toward the official inflation target.