Global gasoline prices are expected to remain stubbornly high through the autumn, even as crude oil benchmarks retreat from recent peaks.
The divergence stems from a severe shortage in global refining capacity, driven by ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East that have disrupted processing infrastructure and export flows.
50 per gallon through the November election, with odds for that outcome rising to 75%.
The tightening of the refining market has created a structural bottleneck that is insulating finished fuel prices from the broader softness in crude markets.
While crude prices have stabilized or fallen, the supply of refined products such as diesel and gasoline remains constrained, keeping spreads wide and retail prices elevated.
Market participants appear to be pricing in a prolonged period of supply uncertainty rather than a transient seasonal spike.
Speculators on prediction markets have increased bets that U.S. gasoline prices will stay above $3.50 per gallon through the November election, with odds for that outcome rising to 75%.