Etsy Inc
Etsy Inc operates an online marketplace connecting buyers and sellers of unique, handmade, and vintage goods, generating revenue primarily through transaction fees and advertising services.
Business. Etsy Inc (NYSE: ETSY) is a retailer operating within the Consumer Cyclicals sector, specifically classified under the Department Stores industry. The company generates revenue through a product-sale model. As segment and geographic breakdowns are not provided, the business is described at the industry level. Etsy Inc is primarily listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Analyst recommendations
31 analysts · consensus HoldAt a glance
What drives this business
The watch-list the newsroom runs for this company — derived from its sector path, sharpened layer by layer. Not investment advice.
News & coverage
1Sector rotation
Developing storylines
Analysis
AI analysisOpportunity
Upcoming catalysts
Scheduled public events. Informational only — not investment advice.
- Company
- EarningsQ3 2026 earnings (expected)2026-10-28 · estimated
- Macro
- Rate decisionBank of England rate decision (press conf.)2026-08-06 · GB
- Rate decisionReserve Bank of Australia rate decision (press conf.)2026-08-12 · AU
- Rate decisionNorges Bank rate decision (press conf.)2026-08-20 · NO
- Rate decisionSveriges Riksbank rate decision (press conf.)2026-09-03 · SE
- Rate decisionBank of Canada rate decision (press conf.)2026-09-09 · CA
- Rate decisionEuropean Central Bank rate decision (press conf.)2026-09-10 · EU
- Macro & political
- ElectionSE Swedish Election2026-09-14 · SE
- ElectionUS U.S. Midterms2026-11-03 · US
- ElectionFR French Legislative2027-06-01 · FR
- Congressional trades
- CongressJosh Gottheimer — Etsy, Inc.2023-05-08 · Democrat · NJ · Sale · $1,001 - $15,000
- CongressJosh Gottheimer — Etsy, Inc.2023-04-27 · Democrat · NJ · Sale · $1,001 - $15,000
- CongressJosh Gottheimer — Etsy, Inc.2023-01-11 · Democrat · NJ · Purchase · $1,001 - $15,000
- CongressJosh Gottheimer — Etsy, Inc.2022-03-07 · Democrat · NJ · Sale · $1,001 - $15,000
- CongressJosh Gottheimer — Etsy, Inc.2022-02-02 · Democrat · NJ · Sale · $1,001 - $15,000
- CongressJosh Gottheimer — Etsy, Inc.2021-10-19 · Democrat · NJ · Purchase · $1,001 - $15,000
Pre-earnings brief
Signals & dispatch
Composite-score breakdown
Synthesis
Etsy Inc (NYSE: ETSY) is a retailer operating within the Consumer Cyclicals sector, specifically classified under the Department Stores industry. The company generates revenue through a product-sale model. As segment and geographic breakdowns are not provided, the business is described at the industry level. Etsy Inc is primarily listed on the New York Stock Exchange.
Etsy maintains a complex capital structure characterized by negative total equity of -1.14 billion USD against total liabilities of 3.82 billion USD. The company holds 1.21 billion USD in cash and equivalents, providing a current ratio of 1.69, which suggests adequate short-term liquidity despite the negative equity position. Short-term debt stands at 649.3 million USD, contributing to a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -0.57. The risk assessment flags liquidity risk as low, indicating that immediate solvency concerns are manageable, but the negative equity base remains a structural vulnerability.
Profitability metrics show a gross profit of 455.6 million USD on revenue of 631.3 million USD, resulting in a gross margin of approximately 72%. Operating income is 119.8 million USD, leading to a net income of 69.7 million USD for the period. The return on assets is 6.08%, while the return on equity is negative at -14.34% due to the negative equity denominator. The price-to-earnings ratio is 57.72, and the EV/EBITDA is 24.02, suggesting the market prices in significant future growth or stability despite current valuation multiples being elevated relative to typical value benchmarks.
Revenue concentration and segment details are not explicitly broken down in the provided data, but the business model relies heavily on the interaction between sellers and buyers on its platform. The company’s exposure to technological changes and platform dependencies is a key operational factor, as noted in filing observations regarding reliance on mobile, social, and search solutions. The geographic distribution of revenue is not specified in the available data, limiting the ability to assess regional concentration risks.
Growth trajectory analysis is constrained by the absence of historical period data in the input. The current quarter’s revenue of 631.3 million USD serves as the baseline for performance evaluation. Without year-over-year or quarter-over-quarter historical comparisons, the direction of revenue growth cannot be quantitatively assessed from the provided snapshot alone. The company’s ability to maintain or grow this revenue base is contingent on its capacity to adapt to technological changes and maintain platform effectiveness.
Risk factors are dominated by high dilution risk, as the diluted share count of 121.03 million is materially above the basic share count of 94.89 million. This discrepancy suggests significant potential dilution from stock-based compensation or other equity issuances. Key flags also highlight the risk of failing to meet publicly announced guidance, which could lead to stock price declines. Additionally, the company faces the risk of impairment charges on goodwill and other long-lived assets, which could negatively impact operating results in the future.
Recent events include critical 8-K filings with material items 1.01 and 2.01, indicating significant corporate actions or changes in financial status. Analyst sentiment is mixed, with a mean recommendation of 2.61 (on a scale where 1 is strong buy and 5 is strong sell) and a mean price target of 77.98 USD, closely aligned with the current market price of 77.73 USD. The high count of hold ratings (20) compared to buy (7) and strong buy (3) ratings suggests cautious market expectations.
- Negative total equity of -1.14 billion USD creates a negative ROE of -14.34%, distorting return metrics despite positive net income of 69.7 million USD.
- High dilution risk is flagged due to the diluted share count (121.03M) being significantly higher than the basic share count (94.89M).
- Liquidity is assessed as low risk with a current ratio of 1.69 and 1.21 billion USD in cash, offsetting short-term debt of 649.3 million USD.
- Valuation multiples are elevated with a P/E of 57.72 and EV/EBITDA of 24.02, reflecting high growth expectations or market optimism.
- Critical 8-K filings and mixed analyst sentiment (mean rec 2.61) indicate near-term uncertainty and cautious market positioning.
- Operational risks include dependency on third-party platforms and potential impairment charges on goodwill and intangible assets.
Bull / Bear case
Generated · model-assistedOperating margin of 9.2% significantly exceeds the 4.3% Department Stores cohort median, indicating superior profitability.
Free cash flow grew 8.9% year-over-year to $738 million, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities.
Analysts project 14.9% upside to a mean price target of $73.85, suggesting undervaluation relative to consensus.
Cash conversion ratio of 4.25 ranks above the 75th percentile within the Department Stores cohort.
High dilution risk is flagged, potentially eroding shareholder value through equity issuance or option exercises.
Revenue declined 2.6% year-over-year, indicating contraction in top-line growth momentum.
Net debt to EBITDA stands at 2.55, reflecting elevated leverage within the high band classification.
In focus — financials by report
Revenue $631.3M; Operating income $119.8M.
- ▍Revenue $631.3M
- ▍Operating income $119.8M
- ▍Net margin 11.0%
Revenue $2.00B; Operating income $136.8M.
- ▍Revenue $2.00B
- ▍Operating income $136.8M
- ▍Net margin 2.6%
Revenue $1.32B; Operating income $54.1M.
- ▍Revenue $1.32B
- ▍Operating income $54.1M
- ▍Net margin -1.8%
Revenue $2.88B; Operating income $266.2M.
- ▍Revenue $2.88B
- ▍Operating income $266.2M
- ▍Net margin 5.7%
Revenue $2.81B; Operating income $380.2M.
- ▍Revenue $2.81B
- ▍Operating income $380.2M
- ▍Net margin 10.8%
Revenue $2.81B; Operating income $380.2M.
- ▍Revenue $2.81B
- ▍Operating income $380.2M
- ▍Net margin 10.8%
Revenue $2.75B; Operating income $279.8M.
- ▍Revenue $2.75B
- ▍Operating income $279.8M
- ▍Net margin 11.2%
Revenue $2.75B; Operating income $279.8M.
- ▍Revenue $2.75B
- ▍Operating income $279.8M
- ▍Net margin 11.2%
Valuation FY
Revenue by segment
Business relationships
Supply chain
Peer comparison
Market position
Stress test
Predictor forecast
| Metric | Our forecast | Guidance | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | —no estimate | —no estimate | 3,46 |
| Revenue | —no estimate | —no estimate | 2,8B USD |
| Operating income | —no estimate | —no estimate | 510,7M USD |
Options
Short squeeze
Earnings-call key lines
Consensus distribution
sell-side coverageEstimate revisions
consensus EPS · 26-week trendSell-side observations
Themes
ESG
Risk factors
- Diluted share count is materially above the basic share count.
- Source documents mention dilution or offering risk.
Benchmarks vs cohort
Corporate actions / M&A
FX exposure
Comparable transactions
Derivatives & instruments
Derivative transactions
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) → Common StockDisposed 22 881 @ $10,62exercise · 2026-07-15
- Director · Director stock option (right to buy) → Common StockDisposed 3 855 @ $61,25exercise · 2026-07-15
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) → Common StockDisposed 39 161 @ $10,62exercise · 2026-07-10
- Chief Marketing Officer · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 4 441exercise · 2026-07-01
- Director, Chief Executive Officer · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 9 104exercise · 2026-07-01
- Director, Chief Executive Officer · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 9 518exercise · 2026-07-01
- Chief Product & Tech Officer · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 752exercise · 2026-07-01
- Chief Product & Tech Officer · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 1 067exercise · 2026-07-01
- Chief Product & Tech Officer · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 7 218exercise · 2026-07-01
- CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 730exercise · 2026-07-01
- CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 650exercise · 2026-07-01
- CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 634exercise · 2026-07-01
- Director, Chief Executive Officer · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 3 007exercise · 2026-07-01
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 13 260exercise · 2026-07-01
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) → Common StockDisposed 92 404 @ $10,62exercise · 2026-07-01
- Chief Financial Officer · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 7 218exercise · 2026-07-01
- CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 4 210exercise · 2026-07-01
- CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 5 975exercise · 2026-07-01
- CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 6 662exercise · 2026-07-01
- Chief Marketing Officer · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 859exercise · 2026-07-01
- Chief Marketing Officer · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 3 983exercise · 2026-07-01
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Restricted Stock Units → Common StockDisposed 7 302exercise · 2026-07-01
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) → Common StockDisposed 97 389 @ $10,62exercise · 2026-06-24
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) → Common StockDisposed 52 479 @ $10,62exercise · 2026-06-16
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Employee Stock Option (Right to Buy) → Common StockDisposed 50 000 @ $10,62exercise · 2026-06-15
Actions
Ask Handelsavisen
- Market data
- Regulatory filings
- Issuer disclosures
- Public news
- Earnings transcripts
- Consensus estimates
- ESG data
- Reference data
- Cash Conversion Ratiooperating_cash_flow / net_income
- Market Priceinput from market-data provider (delayed close or quote-shim mid)
- Ev To Revenueenterprise_value / revenue
- Net Cashcash_and_equivalents + short_term_investments - short_term_debt - long_term_debt
- Return On Equitynet_income / total_equity
- Market Capmarket_price * shares_outstanding_diluted
- ETSY INC company facts · 2026-08-01
- ETSY INC 10-Q 2026-04-29 · 2026-08-01
- ETSY INC 10-K 2026-02-19 · 2026-08-01
- ETSY INC 10-Q 2025-10-29 · 2026-08-01
- ETSY INC 10-Q 2025-07-30 · 2026-08-01
- 8-K (sec_8k_material) on ETSY · 2026-08-01
- ETSY Inc Market data — analyst estimates · 2026-08-01
- ETSY Inc Market data — ESG · 2026-08-01
Ownership & reference
Top holders
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,09 %$164M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,06 %$129M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,02 %$79M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$24M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$56M
- Investment Managers · as of 2025-12-310,01 %$580M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2022-09-300,01 %$0M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$10M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$14M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$30M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,01 %$88M
- Investment Managers · as of 2024-12-310,00 %$17M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$36M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$13M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$12M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$4M
- Funds · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$17M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$10M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$5M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$1M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$19M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$1M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$2M
- Investment Managers · as of 2024-06-300,00 %$7M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$2M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$2M
- Brokerage Firms · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Brokerage Firms · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Institutional Investor · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
- Investment Managers · as of 2026-03-310,00 %$0M
Leadership
- Josh SilvermanPresident, Chief Executive Officer, Director
Insider activity
- Director · Common StockOther 3 855 @ $61,25$236K · 2026-07-15
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Common StockSold 22 881 @ $84,00$1,9M · 2026-07-15
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Common StockOther 22 881 @ $10,62$243K · 2026-07-15
- Director · Common StockSold 3 855 @ $85,00$328K · 2026-07-15
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Common StockSold 39 161 @ $79,00$3,1M · 2026-07-10
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Common StockOther 39 161 @ $10,62$416K · 2026-07-10
- CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · Common StockSold 315 @ $75,81$24K · 2026-07-06
- CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · Common StockSold 2 @ $77,14$154 · 2026-07-06
- CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · Common StockSold 564 @ $75,09$42K · 2026-07-06
- Director, Executive Chair of the Board · Common StockOther 20 562 · 2026-07-01
- CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · Common StockOther 728 @ $72,83$53K · 2026-07-01
- CHIEF ACCOUNTING OFFICER · Common StockOther 2 014 · 2026-07-01
- Chief Product & Tech Officer · Common StockOther 4 932 @ $72,83$359K · 2026-07-01
- Chief Product & Tech Officer · Common StockOther 9 037 · 2026-07-01
- Director, Chief Executive Officer · Common StockOther 11 801 @ $72,83$859K · 2026-07-01
- Director, Chief Executive Officer · Common StockOther 21 629 · 2026-07-01
- Chief Marketing Officer · Common StockOther 4 741 @ $72,83$345K · 2026-07-01
- Chief Marketing Officer · Common StockOther 9 283 · 2026-07-01
- CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER · Common StockOther 10 404 @ $72,83$758K · 2026-07-01
- CHIEF LEGAL OFFICER · Common StockOther 16 847 · 2026-07-01
- Director · Common StockSold 2 567 @ $76,05$195K · 2026-07-01
- Director · Common StockSold 4 901 @ $75,42$370K · 2026-07-01
- Director · Common StockSold 5 208 @ $74,16$386K · 2026-07-01
- Director · Common StockSold 7 324 @ $73,29$537K · 2026-07-01
- Chief Financial Officer · Common StockOther 3 992 @ $72,83$291K · 2026-07-01
Short positioning
Geographic breakdown
Intel & risk
no material change vs prior analysis (walked 17 fields; 4 schema-expansion field(s) excluded)
- Narrative— → —medium
- Conclusion— → —medium
- Key takeaways— → —medium
- Company share pct— → —medium
Evidence & claims
From filings & derived data- EPS (diluted) (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): -40.9%Derived (calculated)
- Net margin (FY 2025-12-31): 5.7%Derived (calculated)
- Gross margin (FY 2025-12-31): 71.6%Derived (calculated)
- Return on equity (FY 2025-12-31): -14.8%Derived (calculated)
- Return on assets (FY 2025-12-31): 5.8%Derived (calculated)
- Current ratio (FY 2025-12-31): 1.44xDerived (calculated)
- Debt-to-equity (FY 2025-12-31): -3.57xDerived (calculated)
- Capex (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): 8.3%Derived (calculated)
- Cash & equivalents (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): 67.1%Derived (calculated)
- Cost of revenue (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): 5.6%Derived (calculated)
- EPS (basic) (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): -39.8%Derived (calculated)
- Gross profit (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): 1.6%Derived (calculated)
- Long-term debt (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): 2.0%Derived (calculated)
- Net income (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): -46.2%Derived (calculated)
- Operating cash flow (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): -7.8%Derived (calculated)
- Operating income (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): -30.0%Derived (calculated)
- R&D expense (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): 1.6%Derived (calculated)
- Revenue (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): 2.7%Derived (calculated)
- Shareholders' equity (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): -44.7%Derived (calculated)
- Total assets (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): 16.9%Derived (calculated)
- Total liabilities (YoY) (2025-12-31 vs 2024-12-31): 23.6%Derived (calculated)
- EPS (diluted) (annual): USD-PER-SHARES 1SEC XBRL filing
- Operating cash flow (annual): USD 693.41MSEC XBRL filing
- Cash & equivalents (annual): USD 1.36BSEC XBRL filing