Australia's grid operator, AEMO, has drastically reduced its central forecast for gas-fired power generation over the next 25 years, cutting the outlook by nearly 39%.
The revised projections reflect the accelerating role of renewable energy and battery storage in the national grid, fundamentally altering the long-term demand profile for gas in the power sector.
The downgrade comes despite a major outage at the east coast's largest gas power generator on Sunday, which had minimal impact on market stability.
This resilience underscores the growing redundancy provided by distributed energy resources and storage systems, reducing the grid's reliance on large-scale gas plants for peak demand management.
The shift highlights a structural transition in Australia's energy mix, where battery storage growth is increasingly undercutting the traditional role of gas-fired generation.
As renewables capacity expands, the marginal utility of gas for power generation is expected to decline, potentially impacting the valuation of existing gas assets and future investment decisions in the sector.