Economic Data
Economic Data
Releases, central banks, FOMC, yield curves.
FOMC voter stance
Philip Jefferson
· Board of Governors
+1.00Hawkish+0.00 30d
Christopher Waller
· Board of Governors
+0.00Neutral
Jerome PowellChair
Chair · Board of Governors
+0.00Neutral
John WilliamsVice Chair
Vice Chair · New York
+0.00Neutral-0.37 30d
Lisa Cook
· Board of Governors
+0.00Neutral
Lorie Logan
· Dallas
+0.00Neutral
Michael Barr
· Board of Governors
+0.00Neutral+0.00 30d
Michelle Bowman
· Board of Governors
+0.00Neutral+0.00 30d
Neel Kashkari
· Minneapolis
+0.00Neutral
Stephen Miran
· Board of Governors
+0.00Neutral
Anna Paulson
· Philadelphia
-0.46Lean Dov
Beth Hammack
· Cleveland
-0.52Dovish
Rate path probabilities
Federal ReserveCurrent: 4.375%
2026-05-064.375%prior — · Press
2026-06-174.375%prior — · Press · SEP
2026-07-294.375%prior — · Press
2026-09-164.375%prior — · Press · SEP
2026-10-284.375%prior — · Press
2026-12-164.375%prior — · Press · SEP
European Central BankCurrent: 2.650%
2026-06-042.650%prior — · Press · SEP
2026-07-162.650%prior — · Press
2026-09-102.650%prior — · Press · SEP
2026-10-222.650%prior — · Press
2026-12-102.650%prior — · Press · SEP
Bank of EnglandCurrent: 4.500%
2026-05-074.500%prior — · Press
2026-06-194.500%prior —
2026-08-064.500%prior — · Press
2026-09-174.500%prior —
2026-11-054.500%prior — · Press
2026-12-174.500%prior —
Bank of JapanCurrent: 0.500%
2026-06-160.500%prior — · Press
2026-07-160.500%prior — · Press · SEP
2026-09-170.500%prior — · Press
2026-10-290.500%prior — · Press · SEP
2026-12-180.500%prior — · Press
Active policy signals
Labor market tightens further with wage growth above 4%
Additional policy firming may be appropriate
Services inflation moves toward 2% by Q3 2026
Further calibration of restrictiveness warranted
Wage growth persists above 4.5%
Premature easing risks re-anchoring expectations
Core PCE sustains below 2.5% over the next two prints
Committee prepared to begin measured rate reductions
Inflation continues trending toward target by mid-2026
Can support front-loaded rate cuts
Unit labor costs remain elevated
Must maintain restrictive stance for longer
Services CPI falls below 5% on a sustained basis
Gradual path of rate reductions can begin
Sustainable 2% inflation accompanied by wage growth
Further adjustment of policy rate would be warranted
Credit growth remains weak
RRR or LPR cut actions remain on the table
Core inflation measures stay within 1-3% band
Rate-cutting cycle can continue
Inflation develops broadly as projected
Policy rate likely held at current level through mid-year
Trimmed mean CPI falls within the 2-3% target band
Board can consider reducing restrictiveness
Recent statements
Building a banking regime for the future - speech by David Bailey
Given at JPM UK Banks ALM Conference
Frank Elderson: Interview with NRC
Frank Elderson: Interview with NRC
Philip R. Lane: Expanding the supply of euro safe assets
Philip R. Lane: Expanding the supply of euro safe assets
Waller, Modernizing Federal Reserve Operations in the 21st Century
Speech At The Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C.
Christine Lagarde: The energy shock: where we stand and what we need to know
Christine Lagarde: The energy shock: where we stand and what we need to know
Waller, One Transitory Shock After Another
Speech At the David Kaserman Memorial Lecture, Department of Economics, Auburn University, Auburn, Alabama
ECB Governing Council press conference
President Lagarde confirmed rate hold but opened the door to further easing if services inflation continues to decelerate. Said the disinflationary process is well underway.
FOMC post-meeting press conference
Chair Powell reiterated data-dependence and said the Committee wants to see several more months of on-track inflation data before considering further cuts. Acknowledged resilient labor market but signalled comfort wit…
Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement
Christine Lagarde: IMFC Statement
This time is different? Speech by Sarah Breeden
Given at the HLS-PIFS Symposium on “Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States”
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