Goldman Sachs has issued a stark long-term forecast for the global oil market, projecting that the accelerating adoption of electric vehicles could reduce worldwide crude demand by up to 320,000 barrels per day by the end of 2027.
The bank’s analysis underscores a growing divergence between near-term supply constraints and the structural decline in transportation fuel consumption driven by the energy transition.
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, recently cautioned that the oil market would not normalize until 2027 if the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist beyond mid-June.
This bearish long-term outlook stands in contrast to the immediate market environment, where oil prices have been supported by acute supply risks.
Global oil inventories are currently declining at an unprecedented pace, with strategists warning that stockpiles may not recover until December 2027.
The tightness is largely attributed to geopolitical instability in the Middle East, particularly disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
Amin Nasser, CEO of Saudi Aramco, recently cautioned that the oil market would not normalize until 2027 if the shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist beyond mid-June.