The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has issued a stark assessment of the military situation in Ukraine, warning that Russia has suffered a severe strategic blow with the Crimean peninsula at risk of total isolation.

The think tank’s latest report details intensifying operations against the region, signaling a potential shift in the conflict’s dynamics on the southern front.

This development arrives as Moscow contends with deepening domestic vulnerabilities.

Recent reporting indicates that Russia is grappling with a worsening fuel shortage, driven by sustained attacks on its energy infrastructure.

What was initially dismissed as a localized disruption has spread, threatening to constrain military logistics and civilian supply chains alike.

Compounding these internal pressures, Russia has recently imposed a comprehensive import ban on Armenian goods.