Morgan Stanley has lowered its oil price forecasts for the second time in roughly two weeks, citing a faster-than-expected normalization of shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The bank’s revised outlook suggests that the geopolitical risk premium embedded in crude prices is eroding as supply chains stabilize, pointing toward a potential oversupply scenario in the near term.
The adjustment comes as markets grapple with conflicting signals in the energy complex.
While earlier reports indicated that major oil companies were warning of a depleting global supply buffer, Morgan Stanley’s latest analysis emphasizes the volume of crude now flowing through key chokepoints.
This divergence highlights the tension between structural supply constraints and immediate geopolitical realities.
The bank’s bearish revision adds to a broader cautious tone from Wall Street regarding commodity exposure.