Morgan Stanley has lowered its Brent crude price forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 to $75 per barrel, down from a previous estimate of $80.
The revision reflects the investment bank’s assessment that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering faster than anticipated, reducing the supply disruption risk that had previously supported higher oil prices.
This marks the second downward adjustment to Morgan Stanley’s energy outlook in roughly two weeks.
The bank’s revised stance suggests that the market’s pricing of geopolitical risk in the Middle East is unwinding as maritime routes stabilize.
Traders are interpreting the downgrade as a signal that the risk premium embedded in crude prices is eroding, potentially capping upside for energy equities and commodities in the near term.
The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies, with any disruption capable of sending prices sharply higher.