A temporary ceasefire in the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely to hold beyond the next 60 days, according to a new opinion piece in the Dutch newspaper Telegraaf, which warns that a resumption of hostilities could trigger a severe disruption to global shipping and energy trade routes.
The analysis, authored by Leon de Winter, suggests that the current quiet period is merely a pause before a much larger conflict erupts.
The columnist argues that diplomatic efforts and temporary halts in fighting are insufficient to resolve the underlying tensions, and that market participants should prepare for a significant spike in shipping risk and freight volatility once the window closes.
This perspective arrives as markets continue to price in geopolitical risk premiums for energy and shipping assets.
While recent reports have highlighted diplomatic preparations between the US and Iran, including a potential nuclear deal and G7 focus on opening the strait, the Telegraaf analysis serves as a stark counter-narrative.
It implies that the current calm is fragile and that the risk of a sudden, violent escalation remains high.