Global crude oil prices may find sustained support above pre-conflict baselines, driven by aggressive inventory rebuilding by countries recovering from recent supply disruptions.
This structural demand factor offers a counterweight to the prevailing market narrative that geopolitical risk premiums are rapidly evaporating.
CIMB Securities highlighted this restocking dynamic as a key underpin for global oil demand.
The bank’s analysis suggests that the physical need to replenish depleted stocks will keep benchmarks elevated, even as the immediate fear premium associated with Middle East tensions recedes.
This view contrasts with broader market sentiment, which has seen oil benchmarks shed significant value as traders price in a return to pre-tension levels.
The divergence between physical market realities and speculative positioning is becoming a central theme in energy trading.