The United States and Iran are preparing to finalize a nuclear agreement that would formally end the conflict, with both sides signaling they will claim victory upon the deal's completion.
The diplomatic breakthrough, centered around a leaders' meeting in Evian, marks a decisive shift from weeks of military posturing and represents the most concrete step toward de-escalation in the region.
The prospect of a signed accord has fundamentally altered the market's risk calculus for the Strait of Hormuz.
With the primary catalyst for the ongoing shipping disruption—active hostilities—poised to end, the premium embedded in energy and freight rates is expected to unwind.
Investors are now pricing in a rapid normalization of tanker routes and a subsequent cooling of crude and jet fuel prices as the chokepoint reopens to commercial traffic.
Multiple media reports, including Axios, indicate that the two nations are expected to electronically sign the agreement as early as Sunday.