An industry veteran has warned that political pressure on oil producers has masked a deepening global supply squeeze, creating conditions for crude prices to surge to $135 a barrel if geopolitical risks intensify.
The assessment comes as crude oil prices retreated roughly 3% on Thursday, wiping out a week of gains driven by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The pullback followed reports that former U.S. President Donald Trump signaled hesitancy to resume full-scale military action against Iran, dampening immediate war-risk premiums.
Despite the recent price softening, the veteran argues that the underlying supply picture remains fragile.
The claim suggests that diplomatic "jawboning" has temporarily suppressed prices while structural deficits persist, leaving the market vulnerable to a violent repricing if supply disruptions materialize.
Traders are now weighing the near-term relief from de-escalation signals against the longer-term risk of a supply shock.