The second half of 2026 is shaping up as a critical stress test for the ongoing equity bull market, with investors increasingly focused on whether artificial intelligence investments can translate into tangible revenue growth.
The narrative has shifted from pure capital expenditure enthusiasm to a demand for monetisation proof, creating a fragile backdrop for tech-heavy indices.
Compounding the uncertainty is a resilient US labor market, which is providing fresh ammunition for Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s commitment to price stability.
This economic strength is intensifying market expectations for a rate hike at the next policy meeting, challenging the low-rate environment that has underpinned recent valuations.
The convergence of these factors—tech sector scrutiny and monetary tightening—marks a departure from the earlier phases of the rally.
Market participants are now weighing the risk of a repricing in growth stocks against the potential for higher borrowing costs to dampen broader economic activity.