Bangladesh Bank’s internal economic models are forecasting consumer price inflation near 9 percent through mid-2027, significantly overshooting the central bank’s official ceiling of 7.5 percent for the upcoming fiscal year.
The divergence between the bank’s own projections and its stated target highlights the persistent headwinds facing the economy as it navigates post-crisis stabilization.
The gap between the modeled outcome and the policy target underscores the difficulty of anchoring inflation expectations.
While the central bank has set a 7.5 percent ceiling to signal stability to markets and investors, its own analytical frameworks suggest that price growth will remain stubbornly higher.
This disconnect raises questions about the credibility of the current monetary stance and whether additional tightening measures may be required to close the gap.
Earlier analysis by BRAC EPL had already flagged this misalignment, noting that the official target appeared disconnected from internal economic projections.