Brent crude prices retreated in early trading as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East showed signs of de-escalation, removing a key risk premium from energy markets.

The pullback in oil costs is expected to flow through to consumer prices in major emerging economies, providing a temporary reprieve for central banks navigating sticky inflation.

In Brazil, the decline in energy costs has helped ease near-term inflation fears, supporting the case for another cut in the Selic benchmark interest rate.

However, analysts warn that deeper structural pressures still cloud the monetary policy path, preventing a full normalization of expectations.

The market reaction underscores the sensitivity of emerging-market inflation dynamics to global energy supply shocks.

This development aligns with recent data from Brazil’s official Focus survey, which ended a 15-week streak of rising inflation forecasts.