China’s economy is forecast to have expanded by just 4.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, a deceleration that has sharpened market expectations for additional government stimulus.
The projection, widely circulated by financial media, points to persistent headwinds in household consumption and property investment, which continue to drag on the world’s second-largest economy.
5% forecast could trigger significant volatility in Asian equities and global commodity markets.
The slowdown comes as China’s household spending remains structurally weak, accounting for less than 40% of annual economic output — roughly 20 percentage points below the global average.
This consumption gap has become a central focus for policymakers, who are balancing the need for growth support against concerns over local government debt and financial stability.
Markets are already pricing in a higher probability of policy easing, with traders positioning for potential rate cuts or targeted fiscal measures in the coming weeks.
The official Q2 GDP figure is due to be released later this month, and any deviation from the 4.5% forecast could trigger significant volatility in Asian equities and global commodity markets.