Citigroup analysts have projected that Brent crude could decline to US$60 by the end of the year, driven by the rapid normalization of global energy markets following the resumption of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The bank’s assessment marks a significant shift in sentiment, suggesting that the supply shock fears which dominated the first half of 2026 are receding as trade routes stabilize.
The forecast comes as Brent crude has already shed approximately 30% of its value in the second quarter of 2026, effectively erasing the gains accumulated during the peak of the Iran war.
The forecast comes as Brent crude has already shed approximately 30% of its value in the second quarter of 2026, effectively erasing the gains accumulated during the peak of the Iran war.
This steep correction reflects the market’s reassessment of supply risks; with tanker traffic returning to normal levels, the immediate threat of a prolonged supply disruption has diminished, allowing prices to revert toward fundamentals rather than geopolitical anxiety.
While the immediate price shock has subsided, Citigroup cautions that new risks may be emerging on the horizon.
The bank’s analysis suggests that while the acute phase of the Hormuz crisis is fading, traders should remain vigilant for secondary effects on global trade flows and potential shifts in inventory dynamics.