Citigroup has slashed its year-end price target for Brent crude to $60 a barrel, signaling a sharp pivot in sentiment as geopolitical premiums evaporate from the energy complex.
The bank’s analysts argue that the rapid normalization of global supply chains, particularly the resumption of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz, is stripping away the risk premium that had propped up prices earlier in the year.
The downgrade to $60 represents a significant bearish revision, joining a growing chorus of institutional forecasts that see oil prices softening materially in the second half of 2026.
The downgrade to $60 represents a significant bearish revision, joining a growing chorus of institutional forecasts that see oil prices softening materially in the second half of 2026.
As shipping disruptions in the critical chokepoint diminish, the market is repricing the likelihood of sustained supply constraints, leading to downward pressure on the benchmark contract.
This shift underscores a broader transition in the energy market from a risk-driven rally to a fundamentals-led correction.
With the immediate threat of a prolonged Hormuz closure receding, traders are focusing on underlying demand dynamics and inventory levels, which appear less supportive of elevated price levels.