The International Energy Agency has revised its 2026 global oil supply outlook downward, projecting total output will fall by 3.7 million barrels per day (bpd) to 102.6 million bpd.
The forecast represents a slight upward adjustment of 0.2 million bpd compared to the agency’s previous estimate, but maintains the broader narrative of contracting supply in a constrained market environment.
047 million bpd. The simultaneous squeeze on both supply and demand creates a complex pricing dynamic for energy traders, where geopolitical risk premiums may offset fundamental softness in consumption.
This supply-side tightening arrives against a backdrop of weakening demand expectations.
Handelsavisen previously reported that the IEA forecasts global oil demand will contract for the first time since 2020, with a projected decline of 1.047 million bpd.
The simultaneous squeeze on both supply and demand creates a complex pricing dynamic for energy traders, where geopolitical risk premiums may offset fundamental softness in consumption.
The supply contraction is largely driven by structural production limits and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.