Iran is leveraging the absence of enforcement mechanisms in its recent memorandum of understanding with the United States to assert de facto control over the Strait of Hormuz, according to a new assessment by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The think tank argues that Tehran is using military coercion to force Gulf states to accept Iranian administration of the vital waterway, effectively violating the spirit of the deal intended to de-escalate tensions.
The assessment comes as the US-Iran MoU, signed last week, faces immediate jeopardy following two nights of military confrontations over transit through the strait.
Iran has announced retaliatory strikes against targets linked to the United States, marking a significant escalation in regional tensions.
The ISW report suggests that the MoU has exposed the lack of a durable peace framework in the Gulf, allowing Tehran to exploit security vacuums.
For markets, the implication is a renewed spike in shipping risk premiums.