Speculators on the prediction market platform Kalshi have sharply increased their bets that U.S. gasoline prices will remain above $3.50 per gallon through Election Day in November.
The odds of this outcome have jumped to 75%, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment regarding the duration of elevated energy costs.
This repricing comes as the United States and Iran have resumed military strikes, casting doubt on when normal shipping traffic will resume in the Strait of Hormuz.
The renewed geopolitical tension has prompted traders to price in a prolonged period of supply disruption risk, reversing earlier expectations that energy costs would moderate ahead of the November vote.
The shift in Kalshi odds marks a stark contrast to recent market positioning.
Just weeks ago, speculators were increasingly betting that U.S. inflation had peaked, driven by a rapid decline in energy costs following a period of diplomatic detente between Washington and Tehran.