Sberbank narrows year-end key rate forecast to 13% as tightening cycle persists

Russia's largest lender trims its rate outlook range, signaling expectations that the Bank of Russia will maintain restrictive policy through year-end.

By Handelsavisen Newsroom · Automated 2026-07-01 16:06 UTC · 1 min read

Sberbank has narrowed its forecast for the Bank of Russia's key interest rate at the end of 2026, removing the lower bound of its previous range.

The lender now expects the policy rate to stand at 13%, down from a prior projection of 12-13%.

Petersburg. He noted that the bank will update its broader macroeconomic forecast at the end of July, aligning with the central bank's upcoming policy review cycle.

Taras Skvortsov, Sberbank's CFO, disclosed the revision on the sidelines of the Finance Forum in St. Petersburg.

He noted that the bank will update its broader macroeconomic forecast at the end of July, aligning with the central bank's upcoming policy review cycle.

The adjustment reflects a consensus among major Russian financial institutions that the central bank's aggressive tightening cycle will remain in effect for the remainder of the year.

Sberbank CEO German Gref has previously argued that sustained high rates are beginning to weigh on economic activity, urging policymakers to consider easing measures once inflation shows more durable signs of cooling.