A new analysis reveals that the vast majority of oil discoveries in the South Atlantic never translate into commercial production.
Westwood examined 425 exploration wells drilled across the basin and found that less than one-third of these discoveries ultimately became producing assets.
The finding underscores the significant technical and economic hurdles that persist in the region, despite the high-profile success of recent projects in Brazil and Guyana.
The data challenges the assumption that exploration success in the South Atlantic automatically equates to near-term supply growth.
While the region has attracted substantial capital investment due to its prolific reserves, the low conversion rate from discovery to production suggests that supply additions may be slower and more capital-intensive than market models often assume.
This structural friction is a critical variable for traders assessing the long-term supply curve, particularly as geopolitical risks in the Middle East keep global attention on alternative sources.