The immediate market shock from the US administration's aggressive tariff regime appears to have subsided, but economists are cautioning that the full economic impact may still be pending.
While initial fears triggered significant volatility last year, the subsequent stabilization in equity and currency markets has led some observers to conclude the protectionist measures had limited bite.
However, the sheer volume of policy changes suggests the real disruption is still in its early stages.
Trade policy has been revised more than 50 times since President Donald Trump began his second term, creating a complex and shifting landscape for global supply chains.
This frequency of adjustment mirrors the slow-motion economic adjustments seen during the Brexit transition, where the full cost of decoupling took years to fully register in GDP and inflation data.
The current environment is characterized by a series of investigations and legal maneuvers designed to make tariffs more legally sound, rather than a single, static shock.