Indian oil refiners are not expected to significantly increase purchases of Iranian crude, even as a temporary 60-day waiver from US sanctions opens a regulatory window for trade.
Analysts note that major Indian buyers have already secured their crude requirements for the coming months, with procurement plans typically finalized two to three months in advance.
This structural lag means the immediate supply impact of the waiver will be muted, despite the potential for increased global availability.
The hesitation stems from more than just scheduling.
Uncertainty over the duration of the waiver, alongside persistent payment constraints and compliance risks, is keeping buyers cautious.
Major Asian refiners are weighing the potential for renewed geopolitical hostilities against the short-term discount offered by Iranian barrels.