Commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is expected to operate at less than half of prewar volumes for months, even if a US-Iran peace deal holds, according to Takaya Soga, CEO of Japan’s NYK Line.
The warning underscores the persistent physical constraints on one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints, driven by the presence of unexploded mines that continue to deter full-scale resumption of transit.
Soga highlighted that safer alternative routes lack the capacity to absorb the displaced volume, meaning global supply chains will face structural bottlenecks for the foreseeable future.
This assessment aligns with broader industry concerns that the logistical footprint of the conflict will linger long after diplomatic tensions ease.
The Strait handles roughly a fifth of global oil consumption, making any sustained reduction in throughput a significant risk to energy security.
The shipping executive’s comments add weight to earlier warnings from Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser, who suggested the oil market could take until 2027 to normalize if disruptions persist.