President Donald Trump has called off a U.S. military strike against Iran that was scheduled for Thursday evening, signaling that diplomatic channels have successfully de-escalated the immediate threat of armed conflict....
Adding to the de-escalation, international mediators are now reporting that a diplomatic framework is nearing completion.
Sources familiar with the negotiations indicate that preliminary positions have been exchanged, shifting the immediate market focus from crisis management to the probability of a sustained resolution.
While the strike cancellation has already compressed war-risk premiums, the prospect of a formal deal introduces a new variable for energy and shipping markets.
Traders will now monitor the pace of diplomatic backchanneling for signs of durability.
Until a formal agreement is signed, however, risk managers are likely to keep a portion of the premium in place, given the historical volatility of U.S.-Iran negotiations.