VTB Bank expects the Bank of Russia to raise its forecast for the average key rate in 2027 to a range of 10-11%, up from the current guidance of 8-9%.
First Deputy CEO Dmitry Pyanov indicated that the lender anticipates this adjustment at the central bank's upcoming policy meeting, signaling a more restrictive monetary stance than previously modeled.
The bank stated it would incorporate this measured forecast into its strategic planning.
For market participants, the upward revision implies that borrowing costs in Russia are likely to remain elevated for longer than earlier projections suggested, potentially dampening credit growth and investment activity in the near term.
This outlook comes as the ruble faces ongoing pressure.
The Bank of Russia recently set the official exchange rate for the US dollar at 77.75 rubles, a marginal increase that reflects persistent volatility in the currency market.