Brazil’s coffee export volumes fell sharply in the 2025/26 season, dropping 15.7% to 38.46 million 60-kg bags, according to data from the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association (Cecafé).
The decline underscores the severity of supply constraints gripping the world’s largest producer, compounding the impact of a 25% US tariff on Brazilian imports that was imposed following a year-long trade investigation.
The contraction in physical flows has coincided with a dramatic repricing in the market, with coffee prices reaching a record $379.
The contraction in physical flows has coincided with a dramatic repricing in the market, with coffee prices reaching a record $379.48 per bag.
The surge reflects not only the tariff-driven friction but also broader tightness in global inventories, as buyers adjust to a more constrained supply environment.
Industry representatives had previously warned that the tariffs would ultimately increase costs for American consumers and businesses, a dynamic now evident in the price action.
The export slump highlights the structural vulnerability of the coffee market to trade policy shifts.
With the US representing a significant portion of global demand, the tariff has effectively reduced the volume of Brazilian beans reaching American roasters, forcing a reallocation of supply to other markets or a reduction in overall export throughput.
This dynamic has intensified volatility in futures contracts, as traders price in the likelihood of sustained tightness.