Brazil’s official Focus survey has reversed a prolonged upward trend in inflation expectations, with analysts cutting their 2026 forecast for the IPCA consumer price index to 5.16%.
The revision marks a significant shift in sentiment, ending a 15-week streak of rising projections that had kept pressure on the central bank’s policy outlook.
24%. This cooling in the food basket, a volatile component of the IPCA, has provided tangible support for the revised analyst consensus, suggesting that the peak of inflationary pressure may have passed.
The year-end consensus for the Selic benchmark interest rate remained unchanged at 14%, indicating that while inflation fears are receding, policymakers are not yet expected to pivot aggressively on borrowing costs.
The downward adjustment in inflation forecasts follows concrete evidence of price deceleration in the economy.
Recent data showed Brazil’s consumer price inflation recording its lowest monthly reading in three years for June, driven largely by a reversal in food prices which declined by 0.24%.
This cooling in the food basket, a volatile component of the IPCA, has provided tangible support for the revised analyst consensus, suggesting that the peak of inflationary pressure may have passed.