Thailand's economic expansion is set to remain subdued for the foreseeable future, with leading analysts projecting annual growth of just 2% for both 2026 and 2027.
The downward revision reflects deepening concerns that ongoing trade tensions are structurally capping the country's output potential, keeping it well below the 3% threshold needed for robust development.
Unlike peers such as Bangladesh, where central banks are projecting growth above 6%, Thailand faces a more constrained environment.
Dr. Amornthep Chintachangkul, chief economist at CIMB Thai, highlighted that second-quarter GDP growth slowed to 1.8%, a figure weighed down by the immediate impact of global trade conflicts.
While there is some expectation for a modest rebound in the third quarter, the outlook remains fragile and heavily dependent on the resolution of broader geopolitical trade disputes.
The cautionary tone from CIMB Thai underscores a wider malaise in Southeast Asian growth narratives.
Unlike peers such as Bangladesh, where central banks are projecting growth above 6%, Thailand faces a more constrained environment.
The persistent drag from external trade pressures suggests that domestic demand alone may not be sufficient to drive a meaningful acceleration in the near term.