Citigroup has slashed its year-end price target for Brent crude to $60 per barrel, signaling that the premium for geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz is evaporating as shipping routes stabilize.
The bank’s analysts now expect the benchmark to trade near $60 by December 2026, a significant downward revision that underscores the market’s pivot from supply disruption fears to a focus on demand fundamentals and oversupply concerns.
The forecast adjustment comes as global energy markets undergo a rapid normalization following the resumption of crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
With tanker traffic returning to pre-crisis levels, the immediate threat of a supply bottleneck has receded, removing a key support pillar for oil prices that had sustained higher valuations in recent months.
Citigroup’s analysis suggests that the market is now repricing the likelihood of sustained disruptions, with traders increasingly betting on a return to baseline operational conditions.
This bearish stance from Citigroup adds to a growing chorus of institutional forecasts pointing to softer oil prices in the second half of 2026.