The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has issued a more cautious forecast for the national housing market, citing renewed pressure from tariff-related trade policy disruptions.
The downgrade reflects growing uncertainty in the construction sector, where input costs and supply chain stability are increasingly tied to cross-border trade dynamics.
In June, the annualized rate of housing starts fell by 6% from the previous month, signaling that builders are scaling back new projects in response to weakening demand and rising costs.
This marks a significant shift in the official outlook, moving beyond previous concerns about affordability to include direct trade policy risks as a primary drag on activity.
The revised forecast arrives as broader indicators point to a cooling market.
In June, the annualized rate of housing starts fell by 6% from the previous month, signaling that builders are scaling back new projects in response to weakening demand and rising costs.
The Canada Real Estate Association (CREA) has also lowered its national home sales forecast for the year, reinforcing the view that the sector remains under sustained pressure despite isolated pockets of resilience in certain markets.