Costa Rica central bank delays inflation outlook pending August CPI methodology shift

The Central Bank of Costa Rica will withhold its inflation trajectory forecast until a new consumer price index basket is published in August, complicating near-term policy visibility.

By Handelsavisen Newsroom · Automated 2026-07-28 12:03 UTC · 1 min read

The Central Bank of Costa Rica (BCCR) has decided to postpone its detailed assessment of when inflation will return to the target tolerance range until after a significant methodological update to the consumer price index (CPI) is released in August.

The bank’s tolerance band is defined as ±1 percentage point around the 3% target, but officials are waiting for the new consumption basket data to provide a reliable baseline for future projections.

This pause in forward guidance introduces a period of uncertainty for local market participants who rely on the central bank’s inflation outlook to gauge the trajectory of monetary policy.

Without a clear timeline for when price stability will be re-established within the target band, investors face a gap in the central bank’s communication strategy during a critical window for economic planning.

The decision underscores the importance of data integrity in central bank forecasting.

By waiting for the revised CPI methodology, the BCCR aims to ensure that its statements on inflation dynamics are based on the most accurate and representative measure of consumer spending.