ECB rate hike odds rise for September as analysts warn mortgage relief is off the table

With the central bank expected to hold rates steady today, fresh analysis suggests a September increase is now on the cards, dampening hopes for cheaper borrowing costs.

Av Handelsavisen Newsroom · Automatisert 24. juli 2026, 08:27 UTC · 1 min lesetid

The European Central Bank is widely expected to keep its key interest rates unchanged at its policy meeting today, but markets are bracing for a significant shift in tone.

Officials are anticipated to signal that further tightening remains an option if inflation pressures persist, according to recent analyst commentary.

25% at least until its September meeting, opting for caution amid rising geopolitical risks.

This hawkish pivot comes as the ECB has confirmed it will maintain its key deposit facility rate at 2.25% at least until its September meeting, opting for caution amid rising geopolitical risks.

While the immediate policy stance remains steady, the underlying message to markets is clear: the era of easy money is not returning anytime soon.

Analysts warn that mortgage borrowers should not expect relief in the near term.

The prospect of a rate hike in September has gained traction, driven by persistent inflationary pressures and a cautious approach from policymakers who are unwilling to declare victory over price stability too early.