Gediminas Šimkus, a member of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council and head of the Bank of Lithuania, has reiterated that a rate increase in September is probable.

His comments come as the ECB holds its latest monetary policy meeting, where officials are widely expected to keep the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.25% but signal a clear path toward further tightening.

The remark from Šimkus adds to the growing consensus among policymakers that the pause in rate cuts is nearing its end.

While the ECB has maintained a cautious stance amid rising geopolitical risks, the underlying inflation dynamics and labor market strength are pushing the bloc toward a more restrictive policy posture.

Markets are already pricing in a significant shift in tone, with traders adjusting their expectations for the next policy move.

This development marks a notable evolution in the ECB’s communication strategy.