German economic researchers are warning that European fuel prices will remain structurally high in the coming months, even as immediate supply risks to the continent appear contained.
The German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) stated that while Germany and the wider European Union have secured their crude oil and fuel supplies, the underlying market tensions stemming from the conflict involving Iran continue to exert upward pressure on prices.
The assessment comes as markets navigate a complex backdrop of geopolitical instability in the Persian Gulf.
Although physical supply chains to Europe have not been disrupted, the risk premium embedded in energy markets remains significant.
DIW experts emphasized that the stability of supply does not equate to price stability, noting that the threat of escalation continues to support higher valuations for crude and refined products.
For investors and policymakers, the persistence of high energy costs poses a renewed challenge for inflation management in the eurozone.