Goldman Sachs estimates that the 2026 FIFA World Cup will add approximately 40,000 temporary positions to the US nonfarm payrolls count for June.
The bank’s analysis suggests the global tournament, hosted across the United States, Canada, and Mexico, is injecting a one-time boost into employment figures that may obscure the true state of the labor market.
The Dow Jones consensus currently projects a gain of 115,000 jobs for the month.
Goldman’s adjustment implies that without the World Cup-related hiring, the underlying headline number would be significantly weaker, closer to 75,000.
This distinction is critical for investors parsing the data for signals on Federal Reserve policy.
The US labor market faces a critical test this week following a private-sector jobs print that fell short of expectations.