The International Monetary Fund has issued a stark warning that the global oil shortage will not resolve quickly, with reserves approaching critical minimum levels that threaten to strain the energy sector's physical infrastructure.
The assessment underscores the fragility of current supply chains despite recent diplomatic progress in the Middle East.
According to the IMF, the path to normalization is protracted.
Even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz were to resume fully and immediately, restoring normal oil supply volumes from the region would take two to three months.
This lag creates a persistent supply deficit that markets are currently repricing, keeping upward pressure on crude benchmarks.
The warning comes as global energy markets grapple with the aftermath of recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran and Israel.