Restoring normal oil supply volumes from the Middle East will take two to three months even if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is fully restored, according to a new analytical note from the International Monetary Fund.
The assessment highlights that the physical and logistical bottlenecks created by the recent disruption will not resolve instantly, even after a diplomatic or military de-escalation clears the waterway.
The IMF’s projection underscores a structural lag in the energy market that traders and policymakers must account for.
While the immediate threat of a total blockade may recede, the pipeline of inventory replenishment and the re-establishment of complex shipping schedules will keep supply tight.
This delay means that any relief rally in oil prices driven by news of a reopening could be short-lived if markets fail to price in the months-long recovery period.
This analysis comes as the Strait of Hormuz remains officially open to navigation, though normal oil flows are expected to return slowly over months rather than days.