Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that the current El Niño climate phenomenon is expected to persist well into early 2027, extending the duration of severe drought conditions across the archipelago.
The projection signals a prolonged period of dry weather that will likely exacerbate existing water shortages and strain agricultural production in key regions.
The agency’s forecast comes as Indonesia’s National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) has already escalated emergency responses to acute water crises in Central and East Java.
Authorities have been distributing clean water to hundreds of households facing critical shortages, with regional governments instructed to prepare for a potential clean water crisis that could last up to 11 months.
The extended timeline raises concerns about the sustainability of current relief efforts and the potential for broader socioeconomic disruption.
For markets, the prolonged drought poses risks to Indonesia’s agricultural sector, particularly for commodities such as palm oil, rubber, and rice, which are sensitive to rainfall patterns.