Indonesia’s Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has projected the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) to average between US$67 and US$71 per barrel for July 2026.
The benchmark serves as a critical input for calculating domestic fuel subsidies and refining margins, directly influencing the country's fiscal outlays and consumer price pressures.
The forecast comes as Jakarta navigates a recent uptick in inflation, which accelerated to 3.34% year-on-year in June, surpassing market expectations.
Government officials have attributed the June spike largely to seasonal factors and are forecasting a moderation in price pressures in the coming month.
A stable crude benchmark within the projected range would support this outlook by limiting further pass-through costs to transport and energy bills.
The ICP is a weighted average of several crude grades, including Minas, and is updated monthly to reflect global market conditions.